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Post-Pandemic Political Turbulence Ahead

Historically, pandemics have had significant political repercussions. For example, the 14th-century plague, which killed a third of Europeans, allowed laborers to demand better conditions due to a shortage of workers. The 1918-19 influenza pandemic, which claimed 20 million lives in India and another 30 million worldwide, fueled Mahatma Gandhi’s push to end British colonial rule. Pandemics can dramatically alter political landscapes. A study of 133 countries from 2001 to 2018 shows that political unrest often peaks two years after an epidemic begins, suggesting that 2022 could be particularly tumultuous.

In 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, global civil unrest increased by 10%, despite widespread restrictions on public gatherings. Some citizens blamed their governments for failing to control the virus, while others protested against stringent, economically damaging lockdowns. Additionally, there are those who distrust the safety of the vaccines being promoted by their governments.